Suchergebnisse

The rise of nationalist and populist movements throughout the world has led to concerns about the future of the liberal international economic order. Central to these worries is the belief that nationalist and populist publics and their leaders will reject open trade, which has been a cornerstone of the global order. Yet despite these fears, very little empirical research has been conducted on the links between either nationalism or populism and trade policy. In this paper, we argue that nationalism and populism are likely to discourage trade liberalization in democratic states, but that these forces will have little influence on trade policy in non-democracies. To test this argument, we focus on state involvement in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Based on a variety of tests, we find considerable support for our argument. Democracies with nationalist or populist governments are especially reluctant to join PTAs, but neither nationalism nor populism systematically influences whether non-democracies enter PTAs.

The impact of presidential debates on candidate evaluations remains an open topic. Research has long sought to identify the factors that matter most in citizens' responses to debate content, including what candidates say, how they say it, and the manner in which they appear. This study uses detailed codings of the first and third 2012 presidential debates to evaluate the impact of candidates' verbal and nonverbal behaviors on viewers' "second screen" response—their use of computers, tablets, and mobile devices to express their reactions to the viewing experience. To examine the relationship between candidates' on-screen behaviors and the social media response, we conduct generalized least squares regression (Prais–Winstein estimation) relating two data sources: (a) a shot-by-shot content analysis coded for rhetorical/functional, tonal, and visual elements of both candidates' behavior during the debates, and (b) corresponding real-time measures of the volume and valence of online expression about the candidates on Twitter. We find that the nonverbal communication behaviors of candidates—their facial expressions, physical gestures, and blink rate—are consistent, robust, and significant predictors of the volume and valence of public expression during debates, rivaling the power of memes generated by candidates and contributing more than rhetorical strategies and speech tone.